Bitcoin is down 24% in February 2026. That makes this the worst month for the world's largest cryptocurrency since the TerraUSD collapse in June 2022, according to Bloomberg. From its all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin has now fallen roughly 47.5% to approximately $66,000, per VanEck research.
Every crypto investor is asking the same question right now: Should I sell at a loss, or hold?
This is not a market prediction guide. Nobody can tell you where Bitcoin goes next. What this guide does is give you a tax decision framework — a systematic way to evaluate whether selling at a loss makes financial sense for your specific situation, based on IRS rules, capital loss mechanics, the wash sale loophole, and real dollar examples.
Because in a crash this severe, the IRS code itself becomes a tool. Used correctly, it can turn a painful loss into a tangible tax benefit worth thousands of dollars. Used incorrectly — or not at all — you leave money on the table.
Jump to the Tax Decision Framework ↓Quick Facts: The February 2026 Crash
| BTC February Performance | -24% — worst month since June 2022 (Yahoo Finance) |
|---|---|
| BTC All-Time High | $126,198 (Oct 6, 2025) |
| BTC Current Price (Feb 27) | ~$66,000 |
| Peak-to-Trough Drawdown | -47.5% (VanEck) |
| Feb 5 Crash Severity | -6.05Ο — more severe than FTX collapse (-4.07Ο) |
| Futures Deleveraging | $61B → $49B open interest (-20% in days) |
| ETH Drawdown from Peak | -60.7% |
| SOL Drawdown from Peak | -69.5% |
| Wash Sale Rule for Crypto? | Does NOT apply — sell + re-buy same day is legal |
| Capital Loss Cap | $3,000/year against ordinary income, unlimited carryforward |
What Caused Bitcoin's Worst Month Since 2022?
The February 2026 selloff was not caused by a single event. Six major triggers converged over an eight-week period, creating a cascading deleveraging event that wiped over $1 trillion from the total crypto market cap.
January 5 — Trump announces 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Bitcoin dropped to approximately $63,300, marking its lowest point since October 2024. The announcement triggered a broad risk-off move across all asset classes, per multiple reports.
Late January — AI trade unwinds. Weakness in the AI sector spilled into crypto, particularly impacting Bitcoin miners pursuing high-performance computing strategies. As financing conditions tightened, miners faced pressure to sell BTC to support balance sheets, adding incremental spot supply at a fragile moment, per VanEck.
February 5 — The -6.05Ο day. Bitcoin registered a -6.05Ο rate-of-change Z-score on February 5, placing it among the fastest single-day crashes in crypto history. For context, the COVID crash was -9.15Ο and the FTX collapse was -4.07Ο. BTC touched $60,062, its weakest since October 2024. Futures open interest collapsed from $61 billion to $49 billion in a matter of days — a 20% reduction in notional leverage.
February 20 — Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's emergency tariff authority exceeded constitutional limits. Bitcoin briefly spiked above $68,000 on the news, per Bitcoin Magazine.
February 21 — Trump signs 15% global tariff + Bybit hack anniversary. Within hours of the Court ruling, Trump invoked a 1974 statute to impose a new 15% worldwide tariff for up to 150 days. Bitcoin reversed sharply, falling 5% below $65,000, per CNBC. The same day marked the one-year anniversary of the $1.5 billion Bybit hack.
February 24-27 — Sideways grind at lower levels. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $63,000 and $68,000, with each rally quickly sold into. Bloomberg confirmed this is the worst monthly performance since June 2022. VanEck's analysis describes the current state as "statistical stress, not structural failure" — Bitcoin is trading -2.88Ο below its 200-day moving average, a level not observed in the past 10 years.
Related: Bybit Hack 1-Year — Deduct Stolen Crypto →The Tax Decision Framework: Sell at a Loss or Hold?
This is not about predicting whether Bitcoin recovers. This is about answering a precise question: Does the tax benefit of selling at a loss right now outweigh the cost of doing so? Walk through these five decision points.
Decision Point 1: Do You Have Capital Gains to Offset?
If you realized capital gains in 2025 (filed this year) or expect to realize gains in 2026, harvesting crypto losses right now directly reduces your tax bill. Capital losses offset capital gains dollar-for-dollar with no cap. A $20,000 crypto loss offsets a $20,000 stock gain completely. If you have no gains to offset, the benefit drops to $3,000 per year against ordinary income — still valuable, but less immediate.
Decision Point 2: What Is Your Tax Bracket?
The value of a capital loss depends on what it offsets. Short-term losses offset short-term gains taxed at your ordinary income rate (10-37%, plus 3.8% NIIT above $200K single). For someone in the 37% bracket with NIIT, every dollar of short-term loss offsets income taxed at 40.8%. For someone in the 12% bracket, the same loss saves 12 cents on the dollar.
| Tax Bracket | Value of $10,000 Short-Term Loss | Value of $10,000 Long-Term Loss |
|---|---|---|
| 12% (Single: up to $50,400) | $1,200 saved | $0 saved (0% LTCG rate) |
| 22% (Single: $50,401-$105,700) | $2,200 saved | $1,500 saved (15% LTCG rate) |
| 32% (Single: $201,776-$256,050) | $3,200 saved | $1,500 saved |
| 37% + NIIT ($200K+) | $4,080 saved | $2,380 saved (20% + 3.8%) |
Decision Point 3: Do You Want to Maintain BTC Exposure?
This is where the crypto wash sale loophole makes the analysis fundamentally different from stocks. Under IRC §1091, if you sell a stock at a loss and buy it back within 30 days, the loss is disallowed. This rule does not apply to cryptocurrency — crypto is property, not a security, per TurboTax (Jan 2026) and CoinLedger.
In practice, this means you can sell 1 BTC at a $30,000 loss on Monday morning and buy it back Monday afternoon. You lock in the $30,000 tax loss. Your BTC position is unchanged. With stocks, this move would disallow the loss entirely.
Decision Point 4: Is Your Loss Short-Term or Long-Term?
Short-term losses (asset held ≤ 1 year) first offset short-term gains, which are taxed at the highest rates. Long-term losses (asset held > 1 year) first offset long-term gains, which are taxed at preferential rates. If you have both types of gains, prioritize harvesting short-term losses — the tax savings per dollar are significantly higher.
Important timing consideration: If you bought BTC 10 months ago, you have a short-term loss. If you wait 2 more months, it becomes a long-term loss. In most scenarios, harvesting the short-term loss now is more valuable — unless you expect the loss to shrink significantly (i.e., BTC recovers before the 1-year mark).
Decision Point 5: How Large Is Your Loss?
If your unrealized loss exceeds your total capital gains, the excess can only offset $3,000 of ordinary income per year. However, there is no expiration on the carryforward. A $50,000 net loss in 2026 becomes a $3,000 deduction per year for the next 15+ years — or it wipes out future gains entirely whenever you realize them.
For investors with very large unrealized losses, the math shifts: harvesting the entire loss creates a tax asset that persists for years. You are effectively banking future tax savings at today's depressed prices.
Full Guide: Crypto Tax-Loss Harvesting →Sell Scenario: How Tax-Loss Harvesting Works in This Crash
Let's walk through a concrete example using the February 2026 crash.
Scenario: Mid-Career Professional, 32% Bracket
Sarah bought 2 BTC in March 2025 at $85,000 each (total cost basis: $170,000). It is now February 27, 2026. BTC is $66,000. She also sold $25,000 in stock gains in 2025 (short-term). Her holding period for BTC is 11 months — short-term.
| Action | Amount |
|---|---|
| Sale proceeds (2 BTC × $66,000) | $132,000 |
| Cost basis (2 BTC × $85,000) | $170,000 |
| Realized short-term loss | -$38,000 |
| Offset 2025 stock gains | -$25,000 (eliminated) |
| Remaining loss | -$13,000 |
| Offset ordinary income (2026) | -$3,000 |
| Carryforward to 2027+ | -$10,000 |
Tax Savings Calculation
| Offset Type | Amount | Tax Rate | Tax Saved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term stock gains eliminated | $25,000 | 32% + 3.8% NIIT | $8,950 |
| Ordinary income offset (2026) | $3,000 | 32% | $960 |
| Carryforward (future years) | $10,000 | ~32% est. | ~$3,200 (future) |
| Total estimated tax savings | $13,110 | ||
Sarah sells her 2 BTC for $132,000 on Monday morning. She immediately re-buys 2 BTC at $66,000 (or within a few dollars). Her BTC position is unchanged. Her new cost basis is $66,000 per coin. She has locked in $13,110 in total tax savings. The wash sale rule does not apply.
Hold Scenario: When NOT to Sell at a Loss
Tax-loss harvesting is powerful, but it is not always the right move. Here are five scenarios where holding makes more sense.
You are in the 0% long-term capital gains bracket. For 2026, single filers with taxable income up to $48,475 pay 0% on long-term capital gains. If you fall in this bracket and your BTC is a long-term holding, there is no tax benefit to harvesting — a 0% rate cannot be reduced further.
You have no capital gains to offset. Without gains, the loss can only offset $3,000 of ordinary income per year. For someone in the 12% bracket, that is a $360 annual tax savings. Depending on your exchange fees and the complexity of tracking the basis reset, it may not be worth the effort.
You are approaching the 1-year holding threshold. If you bought BTC 11 months ago, selling now creates a short-term loss. If you wait 1 more month, the same loss becomes long-term. In isolation, short-term losses are more valuable. But if you plan to hold long-term and expect the asset to recover, the holding period reset (back to zero when you re-buy) means future gains will be taxed as short-term. This is the hidden cost of wash-sale-style harvesting.
You already harvested losses this year. If you already sold crypto at a loss in January or earlier in February and re-bought, you have already harvested. Doing it again on the same asset does not create additional loss unless the price has fallen further since your re-buy. Check your current basis before acting.
You believe strongly in near-term recovery and face execution risk. While you can sell and re-buy instantly, there is always brief execution risk — the price could move against you in the seconds between your sell and buy orders, especially during volatile markets. For very large positions, this slippage can be material.
The Wash Sale Loophole: Why Crypto Is Different
The wash sale rule under IRC §1091 is the single most important reason why crypto tax-loss harvesting is uniquely powerful compared to stocks. Here is the law in plain terms.
For stocks and securities: if you sell at a loss and buy the same or a "substantially identical" security within 30 days before or after the sale, the loss is disallowed. You cannot claim it on your taxes. The disallowed loss gets added to the basis of the replacement shares.
For cryptocurrency: this rule does not apply. The IRS classifies crypto as property under Notice 2014-21, not as a security. Property is not subject to IRC §1091. This has been confirmed by TurboTax, CoinLedger, TokenTax, and Kiplinger as of February 2026.
This creates an asymmetric advantage: you can sell BTC at a $30,000 loss at 9:00 AM, re-buy at 9:01 AM, and claim the full $30,000 loss. Your position is unchanged. A stock investor cannot do this.
However, this window is closing. The Cadwalader 2026 Crypto Tax Forecast identifies a Congressional discussion draft that would apply wash sale rules to cryptocurrency. Forbes warned that 2025 may have been the last year without a crypto wash sale rule. If you are going to use this strategy, the time is now.
Full Guide: Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategies →VanEck Data: "Statistical Stress, Not Structural Failure"
Before making a tax decision, it is worth understanding what institutional analysts are seeing in the data. VanEck's Matthew Sigel published a detailed analysis of the February selloff on February 5, 2026. The key findings provide important context — though they are explicitly not investment advice, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Crash Velocity: Extreme but Not Unprecedented
| Event | Rate-of-Change Z-Score |
|---|---|
| COVID Crash (March 2020) | -9.15Ο |
| February 5, 2026 | -6.05Ο |
| FTX Collapse (Nov 2022) | -4.07Ο |
The February 5 crash was faster than the FTX collapse but less severe than COVID. VanEck notes that events of this velocity "tend to exhaust panic selling rather than initiate prolonged cascades, particularly when not accompanied by systemic failure."
Distance from Trend: Unprecedented in 10 Years
Bitcoin is currently trading -2.88Ο below its 200-day moving average. Per VanEck: "0.0% of observations have been further below the 200-day moving average" in the past 10 years. This includes COVID and FTX. Ethereum is at -1.50Ο (5.8th percentile), Solana at -2.05Ο (0.3rd percentile).
Deleveraging, Not Capitulation
Futures open interest fell from $61 billion to $49 billion — a 20% drop. But total liquidations were $3-4 billion, with roughly $2-2.5 billion in Bitcoin futures. VanEck characterizes this as "meaningful but not climactic forced selling." Realized volatility at ~38 is roughly half the 2022 bear market level (70+).
VanEck's conclusion: "Multiple signals are aligning. Even if this is not the bottom, the evidence increasingly supports the formation of a localized bottom." They note that "velocity panic appears exhausted, distance from trend is unsustainable, mean reversion is probable."
Crypto Tax Software: Execute the Harvest Correctly
If you decide to sell, you need to report the loss correctly on Form 8949 and Schedule D. Crypto tax software automates this process and ensures your cost basis, holding period, and gain/loss calculations are accurate.
| Feature | CoinTracker | Koinly | CoinLedger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax-Loss Harvesting Dashboard | Real-time unrealized loss tracker | Manual refresh | Basic |
| Accounting Methods | FIFO, LIFO, HIFO, ACB | FIFO, LIFO, HIFO, ACB | FIFO, LIFO, HIFO |
| Form 8949 Generation | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Cross-Platform Basis Matching | Automatic | Automatic | Manual |
| Pricing (up to 1,000 txns) | $59/year | $49/year | $49/year |
CoinTracker's real-time harvesting dashboard is the most useful feature for this specific strategy — it shows your unrealized losses across all wallets and exchanges, sorted by potential tax savings, so you can identify the highest-impact lots to sell first.
Full Review: Best Crypto Tax Software →Frequently Asked Questions
Should I sell my crypto at a loss for tax purposes?
Can I sell Bitcoin at a loss and buy it back immediately?
How much crypto loss can I write off per year?
Is it better to harvest short-term or long-term crypto losses?
What caused Bitcoin to crash in February 2026?
Do I need to report crypto losses on my tax return?
Can crypto losses offset my stock gains?
Is this a good time to tax-loss harvest Bitcoin?
Related Guides
Continue building your crypto tax knowledge with these in-depth resources from Legal Money Talk:
BTC Crashed 49% — April 15 Action Plan → Bybit Hack 1-Year: Deduct Stolen Crypto → Crypto Tax Havens vs Traps: 0% to 55% → 50% of Crypto Holders Fear IRS Penalties → Crypto Tax-Loss Harvesting Guide → Best Crypto Tax Software → IRS Form 8949 Crypto Guide → IRS CP2000 Crypto Notice Guide → Per-Wallet Cost Basis Tracking →